A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
